BY SARAH ROSS
PORTLAND- With the arrival of census forms this week, the political question following the 2010 census lies in how the change in population will affect state legislative and Congressional representation.
According to the Legislative Policy and Research Office, counties growing faster than the state average will gain greater representation in the state legislature, meaning the districts in those areas will be made geographically smaller than they currently are.
Estimates put out by Portland State University’s Population Research Center show that Oregon’s fastest growing counties are Crook, Deschutes, Jackson, Jefferson, Morrow, and Washington. Even though these areas fall within more Republican areas, Charles Rynerson, a professor at the Population Research center, said this doesn’t necessarily mean there will be greater growth in Republican legislative representation.
“It depends on who draws the boundaries,” said Rynerson. He indicated that districts could be drawn to make them more swing areas or more partisan.
The power to draw the lines generally lies with the Oregon legislature, although since 1961 it has failed to enact a legislative plan that has been approved by the Supreme Court. Instead, plans for redistricting have been designed by the Secretary of State and then approved by the state’s Supreme Court.
Criteria to be considered when redistricting include contiguity, population equity, use of existing geographic or political boundaries, not dividing communities of interest, and connections by transportation links. Also, law prevents boundaries from favoring political parties or incumbent legislators; and boundaries may not be drawn for the purpose of thinning the voting strength of minority groups.
On a national level, a surprise came in December when population estimates released by Election Data Services showed that rather than gaining a Congressional seat as expected from 2008 estimates, Oregon likely will not gain or lose any seats in Congress following the 2010 census. Oregon may fall short of the cutoff by 15,000 to 22,000 people.
Oregon’s neighbor to the south seems to be in a similar situation, gaining no Congressional seats for the first time since entering the Union. However, California’s rise in population could push it to a two-thirds democratic majority in their state legislature.
Washington State, however, is poised to pick up another Congressional seat, surpassing the cutoff by nearly 25,000 people.
| State and Counties | Certified Population Estimate July 1, 2009 | April 1, 2000 Census Population | Percent Change in growth between 2000 and 2009 |
| Oregon | 3,823,465 | 3,421,399 | 12% |
| Counties | |||
| BAKER | 16,450 | 16,741 | -2% |
| BENTON | 86,725 | 78,153 | 11% |
| CLACKAMAS | 379,845 | 338,391 | 12% |
| CLATSOP | 37,840 | 35,630 | 6% |
| COLUMBIA | 48,410 | 43,560 | 11% |
| COOS | 63,065 | 62,779 | 0% |
| CROOK | 27,185 | 19,182 | 42% |
| CURRY | 21,340 | 21,137 | 1% |
| DESCHUTES | 170,705 | 115,367 | 48% |
| DOUGLAS | 105,395 | 100,399 | 5% |
| GILLIAM | 1,885 | 1,915 | -2% |
| GRANT | 7,525 | 7,935 | -5% |
| HARNEY | 7,715 | 7,609 | 1% |
| HOOD RIVER | 21,725 | 20,411 | 6% |
| JACKSON | 207,010 | 181,269 | 14% |
| JEFFERSON | 22,715 | 19,009 | 19% |
| JOSEPHINE | 83,665 | 75,726 | 10% |
| KLAMATH | 66,350 | 63,775 | 4% |
| LAKE | 7,600 | 7,422 | 2% |
| LANE | 347,690 | 322,959 | 8% |
| LINCOLN | 44,700 | 44,479 | 0% |
| LINN | 110,865 | 103,069 | 8% |
| MALHEUR | 31,720 | 31,615 | 0% |
| MARION | 318,170 | 284,834 | 12% |
| MORROW | 12,540 | 10,995 | 14% |
| MULTNOMAH | 724,680 | 660,486 | 10% |
| POLK | 68,785 | 62,380 | 10% |
| SHERMAN | 1,830 | 1,934 | -5% |
| TILLAMOOK | 26,130 | 24,262 | 8% |
| UMATILLA | 72,430 | 70,548 | 3% |
| UNION | 25,470 | 24,530 | 4% |
| WALLOWA | 7,100 | 7,226 | -2% |
| WASCO | 24,230 | 23,791 | 2% |
| WASHINGTON | 527,140 | 445,342 | 18% |
| WHEELER | 1,585 | 1,547 | 2% |
| YAMHILL | 95,250 | 84,992 | 12% |
